gondalguru
07-15 11:09 PM
Some one has done a very good analysis in this thread.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=4285&page=107
Here is copy and paste of the post by gcobessesed
----------------------------------
Reading this post and the Ron Gotcher numbers, I see some answers for the pending India backlog number question and a silver lining for EB2.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drirshad View Post
(Quoting Ron Gotcher) The CIS backlog does not appear to be as serious as I had been told previously. Rather than 600,000 pending employment based AOS cases, it is likely less than 400,000 pending cases.
Quote:
Indian applicants make up approximately 40 to 45 per cent of the entire employment based quota backlog
Therefore, about 160,000 applications are pending for India!
As we have seen before, EB3 and EB2 are almost the same proportion for India with EB3 being slightly higher. So, about 85,000 for EB3 and 75,000 for EB2 are pending.
Quote:
Mr. Oppenheim explained that while the Visa Office initially took the view that visa numbers had to fall down into employment third preference before the could fall across to the individual country quotas, but after further review, additional legislation, and consultation with Congress, they concluded that they have to allocate the fall across within individual preference petitions first.
This means, EB2 will get all unused EB1 visas and EB3 will only get 1/3 of the total 140,000 employment based visas (and 7% per country) until EB2 becomes current.
Also, because 40-45% of the applications are from India, we can assume 40% of the yearly EB1+EB2 *may* be applied to EB2 India. i.e. approximately 35,000 visas per year for India EB2!!!
Putting this in perspective with the pending 75,000 EB2 India applications, we should see all of them approved in the next 3 years. i.e. If your EB2 India priority date is in early 2007, then your I-485 will be approved by 2011, which is fantastic!
If you assume a uniform distribution of applications between Apr 2004 and Apr 2007 (say), it is straightforward to calculate when your date might become current in the next 3 years.
So, according to this, the cut-off date for EB2 India should move towards end of 2004 in the Oct/Nov bulletin. If that happens, then the above argument will be validated.
__________________
I am very confident that EB-2 india will become current in about 14-18 months.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=4285&page=107
Here is copy and paste of the post by gcobessesed
----------------------------------
Reading this post and the Ron Gotcher numbers, I see some answers for the pending India backlog number question and a silver lining for EB2.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drirshad View Post
(Quoting Ron Gotcher) The CIS backlog does not appear to be as serious as I had been told previously. Rather than 600,000 pending employment based AOS cases, it is likely less than 400,000 pending cases.
Quote:
Indian applicants make up approximately 40 to 45 per cent of the entire employment based quota backlog
Therefore, about 160,000 applications are pending for India!
As we have seen before, EB3 and EB2 are almost the same proportion for India with EB3 being slightly higher. So, about 85,000 for EB3 and 75,000 for EB2 are pending.
Quote:
Mr. Oppenheim explained that while the Visa Office initially took the view that visa numbers had to fall down into employment third preference before the could fall across to the individual country quotas, but after further review, additional legislation, and consultation with Congress, they concluded that they have to allocate the fall across within individual preference petitions first.
This means, EB2 will get all unused EB1 visas and EB3 will only get 1/3 of the total 140,000 employment based visas (and 7% per country) until EB2 becomes current.
Also, because 40-45% of the applications are from India, we can assume 40% of the yearly EB1+EB2 *may* be applied to EB2 India. i.e. approximately 35,000 visas per year for India EB2!!!
Putting this in perspective with the pending 75,000 EB2 India applications, we should see all of them approved in the next 3 years. i.e. If your EB2 India priority date is in early 2007, then your I-485 will be approved by 2011, which is fantastic!
If you assume a uniform distribution of applications between Apr 2004 and Apr 2007 (say), it is straightforward to calculate when your date might become current in the next 3 years.
So, according to this, the cut-off date for EB2 India should move towards end of 2004 in the Oct/Nov bulletin. If that happens, then the above argument will be validated.
__________________
I am very confident that EB-2 india will become current in about 14-18 months.
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Marphad
06-16 04:33 PM
Nice well thought out arguments. This is the essence of a healthy debate.
Guys,
I don't understand why we are doing this debate. Dilip (citizen's representative - dilipcr) feels that living standard is going down coz of H1 & L1 people and not because of 2 wars we are fighting. He needs help. You can do it by not answering him.
PLEASE STOP!
Guys,
I don't understand why we are doing this debate. Dilip (citizen's representative - dilipcr) feels that living standard is going down coz of H1 & L1 people and not because of 2 wars we are fighting. He needs help. You can do it by not answering him.
PLEASE STOP!
vdlrao
07-25 12:35 AM
Ever Since August Bullitien came out Ron has posted not to raise any hopes
I doubt it whether he knows about the USCIS has changed the spill overs to horizontal fall outs and due to that the number of visas added to EB2 India/China. The horizontal spill over is giving a greatest adventage to EB2 India and making it run to catch up CURRENT. I see in the link http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5456&page=8 , in one post he is predicting " I expect to see substantial worldwide EB3 movement during the next fiscal year." . But its not true because the EB3 world wide wont have many visas as before from now on. The EB3 world wide will move based on the 7% quota but not more than that.
I doubt it whether he knows about the USCIS has changed the spill overs to horizontal fall outs and due to that the number of visas added to EB2 India/China. The horizontal spill over is giving a greatest adventage to EB2 India and making it run to catch up CURRENT. I see in the link http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5456&page=8 , in one post he is predicting " I expect to see substantial worldwide EB3 movement during the next fiscal year." . But its not true because the EB3 world wide wont have many visas as before from now on. The EB3 world wide will move based on the 7% quota but not more than that.
2011 OpenOffice 3.3.0 Beta 1
chanduv23
02-04 09:10 AM
:(
http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_020207.html
Looks like the final version may be different and may have some loopholes to satisfy AILA and employer lobby.
http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_020207.html
Looks like the final version may be different and may have some loopholes to satisfy AILA and employer lobby.
more...
_TrueFacts
09-04 04:03 PM
If this was about you being having admin previledges,you wud have been taken to trial for misusing this board.....AH...
If all IMV memebers ever come to form a political party, people like you should be avoided. For you it's all love for YSR..where as for others it's not about YSR or CBN. It is about there values and what they stand for against (corruption, blood politics, land grabbing and so forth..)
If all IMV memebers ever come to form a political party, people like you should be avoided. For you it's all love for YSR..where as for others it's not about YSR or CBN. It is about there values and what they stand for against (corruption, blood politics, land grabbing and so forth..)
![openoffice 3.3.0. semicolons in OpenOffice]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_toAzGqKT1kx_pAbstAXTYQR_4N1D_qNzoIXFt74gQVmI58f6ZuvoQ7HzbIi1EldSsfRiB6d45VC2DZnisl-_h0GCTsDOsndNt7zqHBsIW9v2hC8RiZwwCYNNmAP1Qwc25Ln_JMx48=s0-d "semicolons in OpenOffice]")
gauravster
06-02 05:17 PM
Consultation for these purposes is free at some places. Check out
http://lawyers.findlaw.com/lawyer/firm/Civil-Rights/New-York/New-York
I would have loved to go, but things are keeping me busy for the next two weeks. If this is still not taken up, I might go alone and check this out and follow it up. If someone reading this is interested, can you try it out as well and let us know. Maybe we should consult multiple lawyers to make sure that we do or do not have a case. Everyone might interpret things differently.
Another link: http://public.findlaw.com/civil-rights/civil-rights-enforcement/civil-rights-violations-lawsuits.html
http://lawyers.findlaw.com/lawyer/firm/Civil-Rights/New-York/New-York
I would have loved to go, but things are keeping me busy for the next two weeks. If this is still not taken up, I might go alone and check this out and follow it up. If someone reading this is interested, can you try it out as well and let us know. Maybe we should consult multiple lawyers to make sure that we do or do not have a case. Everyone might interpret things differently.
Another link: http://public.findlaw.com/civil-rights/civil-rights-enforcement/civil-rights-violations-lawsuits.html
more...
immigration_indian
07-04 01:43 AM
I sent it to CNN I REPORT
Thanks
Thanks
2010 Suite 3.3.0 RC3
alex77
08-18 01:50 PM
Excellent observation. You deserve a green!
Bollywood should first pay taxes, none of these icons, pay taxes legimately in India, remember them dancing in the partys of mafia, which is tied to terrorists, I think the agent did a great job in nabbing this guy. The VVIP mentality should end in India. Stupid illeterate politicians are over playing this, Ambika Soni should do what she is supossed to do in her office.
Bollywood should first pay taxes, none of these icons, pay taxes legimately in India, remember them dancing in the partys of mafia, which is tied to terrorists, I think the agent did a great job in nabbing this guy. The VVIP mentality should end in India. Stupid illeterate politicians are over playing this, Ambika Soni should do what she is supossed to do in her office.
more...
angelfire76
05-29 09:22 PM
Five letter word: U N I T Y
How many EB1 people do you see on this board?
How many EB1 people do you see on this board?
hair OpenOffice 3.3.0 | 151 МБ
rghangrekar
02-13 10:26 AM
I cannot agree more with the posts from lord_labaku and kuhelica2000. In 2000, during the startup boom I used to work with so-called "experts" in say java that would have a inflated resume, but absolutely no knowledge of what is happening. I am sure based on how their resume was structured, all of them are in the EB2 queue (I am in EB3 BTW). Last year in Nov, a group of us were talking about GC wait times when a friend who was about to apply for labor quoted..."but I do not need to worry, I am applying in Eb2". I have seen posts on this site where people have solely focussed on EB2. If EB2 becomes current, then these dudes would stop supporting IV....
Removing the limited quota per country seems to be the ideal solution. But it would help if we do not focus only on the category our application is in. It would help if , after some of us get our GC, we still continue our support for IV.
Removing the limited quota per country seems to be the ideal solution. But it would help if we do not focus only on the category our application is in. It would help if , after some of us get our GC, we still continue our support for IV.
more...
mallu
02-16 03:24 PM
According to first post in following thread ,
http://immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4285
attorney Ron Gotcher says ( he got info ),
"
Last night, at a meeting of the American Immigration Lawyer's Assocation Southern California chapter, Charles Oppenheim spoke. Mr. Oppenheim is the officer within the Visa Office tasked with calculating visa bulletin cutoff dates each month. He offered the following thoughts as to cutoff date movement in the upcoming months:
* In April, India and China EB2 will be set at 12/01/2003
* EB3 for India and China will slow down for the rest of the fiscal year"
http://immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4285
attorney Ron Gotcher says ( he got info ),
"
Last night, at a meeting of the American Immigration Lawyer's Assocation Southern California chapter, Charles Oppenheim spoke. Mr. Oppenheim is the officer within the Visa Office tasked with calculating visa bulletin cutoff dates each month. He offered the following thoughts as to cutoff date movement in the upcoming months:
* In April, India and China EB2 will be set at 12/01/2003
* EB3 for India and China will slow down for the rest of the fiscal year"
hot Open Office 3.3.0
sandy_77
08-13 04:26 AM
I have two main questions. First question is about 221g. I am stuck in India for administrative processing (no reasons given) for the last 6 months. I would like to know if there are any legal ways of getting the process expedited. Second question is about filing I-485 while on 221g. I have an approved I-140 and if my priority date becomes current while i am still stuck under 221g, what are my options for filing I-485? Can I file or not being outside US. Will AOS be possible or do I need to go for CP? Any other options?
more...
house #5:OpenOffice 3.3.0 Dev M13
jaithran
07-17 12:25 PM
Too many guesses!!! I am a silent watcher here for last 1 or 2 yrs and all your calculations & guesses were proved wrong in the past. Some guys are too positive that they always guess & give some calcuations which seems like you are going to get your GC in 6 months..some are very negative that they always keep crying and always guess & give some calculation which seems like you will only get your GC in 2025. lol to be frank its really funny to see your guesses & calculations. BTW this is not to offend anyone her. Take it easy guys.:D
tattoo semicolons in OpenOffice]
eb3_nepa
09-23 12:31 PM
How do you propose to actually IMPLEMENT this though? I mean how does one actually get out of the quota by "simply agreeing" to buy a house? How does the USCIS enforce that? Don't get me wrong, I would actually possibly benefit from this, but I am not sure how exactly this will go down? The anti-immigrants will see this move as a "BUY YOUR GREEN CARD" or "THE US CITIZENSHIP UP FOR SALE" move.
more...
pictures OpenOffice 3.3.0 RC 1
hebbar77
09-04 03:36 PM
I second your thoughts...do we have the muscle and money power to take on those gundas. If no, we can not do anything. If yes, you become another group of gundas...
Like collecting money to lobby for GC we can accumalate money for Political party as well. I can tell you every Indian would contribute to such endeavor.
Like collecting money to lobby for GC we can accumalate money for Political party as well. I can tell you every Indian would contribute to such endeavor.
dresses Mac openoffice 3.3 mac.
g1FTP
06-16 03:27 PM
I hope that you are more qualified than I am and I am not going to waste your time or my time contesting it. However, you could be a little more humble. I would also like to point out that your high qualifications may be failing you in your critical and deductive reasoning. Refer to the highlighted portion of your quote. If I may reason on an analogous note, you are saying that the current IIT JEE examination lets in a few people who aren't qualified. So by making the examination more tougher, it has more chances of letting in unqualified people. Needless to say, I am stumped.
I am waiting in the line as well for GC or to be sent back home and personally, I want everyone to get their GC and don't agree with dilipcr. Kind of off-topic but I made this observation:
IMHO simsachu's reasoning is sound.
Your example is not the same as simsachu's. simsachu assumes there are way more "bad" fish compared to the good one's in the population. Hence you need to catch more fish to come across a "good" one.
You assume the opposite (there are very few bad fish) and hence come to the conclusion that catching more fish would net you more bad fish (but way more "good" fish as well) as well. But given your assumption, it is puzzling why you want to have lesser number of GC's (if indeed that is what you are advocating, I haven't read all the messages in the thread) when you assume there are way more "good" candidates than bad.
I am waiting in the line as well for GC or to be sent back home and personally, I want everyone to get their GC and don't agree with dilipcr. Kind of off-topic but I made this observation:
IMHO simsachu's reasoning is sound.
Your example is not the same as simsachu's. simsachu assumes there are way more "bad" fish compared to the good one's in the population. Hence you need to catch more fish to come across a "good" one.
You assume the opposite (there are very few bad fish) and hence come to the conclusion that catching more fish would net you more bad fish (but way more "good" fish as well) as well. But given your assumption, it is puzzling why you want to have lesser number of GC's (if indeed that is what you are advocating, I haven't read all the messages in the thread) when you assume there are way more "good" candidates than bad.
more...
makeup OpenOffice 3.3.0 RC8 Rus
trueguy
10-06 06:41 PM
We should follow up on this. US Economy really can take advantage of our buying power. If they give us GC, people will start buying and stop sending their savings to off-shore. Also, buying each house comes with at least 50K other expenses (remodelling, furniture etc) and that will also help the economy.
IV should follow up on this topic with Lawmaker and see if they can understand the logic here.
IV should follow up on this topic with Lawmaker and see if they can understand the logic here.
girlfriend LibreOffice 3.3.0 Beta 2 is
GCJinx
03-19 04:52 PM
It is easy. www.cic.gc.ca
BTW, the job situation is not great there. Others can input too
BTW, the job situation is not great there. Others can input too
hairstyles in OpenOffice Writer.
nixstor
07-03 04:24 PM
Any other way you can get in touch with her... phone??
I already tried. Looks like she is gone for the holiday. Call 202 513 2000 and by pressing the numbers on the phone you can get to her VM as of now.
I already tried. Looks like she is gone for the holiday. Call 202 513 2000 and by pressing the numbers on the phone you can get to her VM as of now.
belmontboy
05-30 01:07 AM
Hiralal aka Zen,
Get a life dude and stop parroting housing campaign in every post of yours. You do not even have $25 in your pocket to contribute but you want to talk about financial power of immigrants.
we are listening to new ideas/suggestions by all members, you don't have to be acrimonious in your response.
Please learn to tolerate others. Everybody deserves a fair chance to be heard.
Get a life dude and stop parroting housing campaign in every post of yours. You do not even have $25 in your pocket to contribute but you want to talk about financial power of immigrants.
we are listening to new ideas/suggestions by all members, you don't have to be acrimonious in your response.
Please learn to tolerate others. Everybody deserves a fair chance to be heard.
vparam
01-23 05:16 PM
http://news.mainetoday.com/updates/008785.html
Our message to Narendra "Nick" Mandalapa : Enjoy prison. Maybe on the inside, you can sell contraband items just like on the outside you sold approved labor certs.
--------------------------------------
Like someone said on the news article thread, the only difference between this guy and other desi companies (Desi means "of Indian origin") is that this guy got caught, while hundreds of other companies still sell approved labor certs with earlier priority dates.
And all this illegal trade is much to the delight of AILA, who is pushing hard to keep labor substitution alive.
What's in it for AILA? : Additional business of labor substitution. Now, for a few extra pennies, AILA would not hesitate to screw thousands of GC applicants waiting in line and enable the "Cutting in line" that happens due to labor substitution.
So if you think AILA is a friend of immigrants (legal or illegal), think again. Its a friend of $$$. And there is nothing wrong with that. Everyone pursues self-interest. That is what AILA is doing. But dont misunderstand AILA as a champion of immigrants (legal or illegal). It represents immigration lawyers, not immigrants. On a rare occassion, the interests overlap, and that's good. But on many issues, AILA has a history of being very very employer friendly as far as immigration law is concerned, even if it comes at the cost of employees(immigrants).
Logiclife -
I would not say substitution of labor is totally wrong. I left my previous company after having waited for a labor over 2 years and helped find a suitable candidate, who also had the same level of education and experiance and was an exact replacement for me (Sr.Program Manager -designation). My (old) company which is fortune 100 company was not ware of this substitution business till i told them they should use it when they spent money filing it for me and i am not using it. while consulting companies also use it when the original person left and they have someone else to fill in that role..
The concept becomes wrong when it sold and not really used for a replacement and i think those guys have to be identified like Narendra Mandalapa and punished.
Our message to Narendra "Nick" Mandalapa : Enjoy prison. Maybe on the inside, you can sell contraband items just like on the outside you sold approved labor certs.
--------------------------------------
Like someone said on the news article thread, the only difference between this guy and other desi companies (Desi means "of Indian origin") is that this guy got caught, while hundreds of other companies still sell approved labor certs with earlier priority dates.
And all this illegal trade is much to the delight of AILA, who is pushing hard to keep labor substitution alive.
What's in it for AILA? : Additional business of labor substitution. Now, for a few extra pennies, AILA would not hesitate to screw thousands of GC applicants waiting in line and enable the "Cutting in line" that happens due to labor substitution.
So if you think AILA is a friend of immigrants (legal or illegal), think again. Its a friend of $$$. And there is nothing wrong with that. Everyone pursues self-interest. That is what AILA is doing. But dont misunderstand AILA as a champion of immigrants (legal or illegal). It represents immigration lawyers, not immigrants. On a rare occassion, the interests overlap, and that's good. But on many issues, AILA has a history of being very very employer friendly as far as immigration law is concerned, even if it comes at the cost of employees(immigrants).
Logiclife -
I would not say substitution of labor is totally wrong. I left my previous company after having waited for a labor over 2 years and helped find a suitable candidate, who also had the same level of education and experiance and was an exact replacement for me (Sr.Program Manager -designation). My (old) company which is fortune 100 company was not ware of this substitution business till i told them they should use it when they spent money filing it for me and i am not using it. while consulting companies also use it when the original person left and they have someone else to fill in that role..
The concept becomes wrong when it sold and not really used for a replacement and i think those guys have to be identified like Narendra Mandalapa and punished.
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